Is T.J. Watt Worth $40 Million A Year?

The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves amidst a critical decision regarding the future of their star outside linebacker, T.J. Watt.

With a potential contract extension on the horizon, the Steelers could be looking at shelling out around $40 million per year to keep this defensive powerhouse on board. Now, before you balk at that figure, it’s essential to understand the landscape of the NFL and how this number aligns with the market’s evolution.

In the realm of elite edge rushers, salaries are scaling heights that seem dizzying at first glance. Yet, they’re entirely consistent with the trajectory we’ve seen over recent years.

Consider Myles Garrett, who inked a four-year, $160 million deal with the Cleveland Browns. With the current cap sitting at $279.2 million, Garrett’s contract consumes about 14.3%—a move that’s perceived less as a gamble and more as securing a critical asset.

To illustrate, when Watt originally penned his five-year, $112 million deal in 2021, the salary cap was $182.5 million. His earnings represented about 15% of the cap then. Fast forward to today, and the numbers, adjusted for cap inflation, suggest that a restructured deal could easily justify up to $43 million annually for Watt, even at age 30.

Some fans might express concerns, not about Watt’s talent—he’s been a Defensive Player of the Year and has helped redefine the art of the sack—but about his age, injury history, and whether the Steelers, currently not the strongest Super Bowl contenders, should invest such substantial cap space in one player. It’s a valid line of inquiry, but it’s crucial to remember just how much Watt contributes when he’s on the field.

Let’s get into the numbers: T.J. Watt has logged an average approximate value (AV) of 13.75 over the last four seasons, even accounting for an injury-plagued 2022.

This is a performance mark unmatched by any rookie in the recent drafts, pointing to Watt’s exceptional yet constant delivery on the gridiron. Trading Watt, even for prime draft picks, would be a gamble far greater than the cash commitment.

First-round draft picks historically clock in with an AV of about 6-7 per season, which pales against Watt’s output.

Hence, unless an extraordinary offer akin to the famed Herschel Walker trade comes through—a highly unlikely scenario—trading Watt doesn’t compute in terms of actual on-field value. The advantage he provides is simply too substantial to trade away for future uncertainty.

Pittsburgh Steelers’ General Manager, Omar Khan, underlines this point stating, “I don’t expect salaries to go down. So I expect them to keep increasing year-to-year.” It signals a broader understanding of the NFL’s economic ecosystem, where securing blue-chip talent is arguably the best currency.

As the Steelers’ management weighs this contract, one thing remains clear: the financial outlay for T.J. Watt is less an exorbitant indulgence and more a strategic anchor move. For a team aiming to carve out a competitive niche in the NFL, holding onto one of the league’s premier defenders might prove priceless.